الاثنين، 29 يوليو، 2013

My view to the situation in Egypt

Brief of the conflict of Muslim brother with army

That history is repeating itself albeit new, compared to what Egypt witnessed at the end of the monarchy and 
what happened in 1954
 Muslim brother not only crash  with the military, but with the state fully its institutions and the people most of   the spectrum Not because the recent secular Turkish style and has a problem of ideology with the Muslim Brotherhood, but because the group, without the other, poses, since its inception, an entity parallel-like state parallel, which does not recognize, albeit implicitly, the state list, and is working to pounce for the benefit of the State of the Community
Muslim brother To continue in the cycle of violence and spread chaos and lies.
Muslim brother techniques comparing between 3 scenario 
Romania 1989 
Algeria 1992 
Turkey 1980
Syria 
Syria no because the Egyptian army not like Syria  army and the Egyptian army supported by socialism party labourist party  and NOUR party it bigest Islamic party  take 22% in The last Parliament election and the church (represented the christian) and AL AZHAR (represent of muslim)
Turkey 1980
No because Egyptian army not like secular Turkish army
Algeria 1992 
No because Egyptian army just want to effect in the politics but no do it and NOUR party the biggest Islamic party supported Egyptian army
I think the situation is Mixed between Turkey 1980 and Romania 1989  because we have some ministers in the new government worked in Mobark System and some ministers revolution leaders.

If we think Strategy to invest in Egypt  and do S W O T analysis to the  situation now in Egypt 

strengths

Egypt has many of the engines of economic growth, income and employment, which can be easily restarted once calm is restored.
Relieve the pressure of foreign exchange reserves and the process by funding from the Gulf and the World Bank, has already been getting some assistance from the Gulf.
Political and financial support of the Gulf monarchies and Western countries
Many actors and with the army learn from the mistakes of the past and carry out corrections to the path, albeit partial and hesitant in the beginning.
Diversified sources of foreign currency (Suez Canal, natural gas, tourism, transfers)
Moderate foreign debt.

Weaknesses

And there is great difficulty in generating enough economic growth and create jobs 
That growth and national income benefit significantly higher class of the population.
the government budget Under pressure because revenue less than spending 
Production least leads to lower exports and less substitution of imports and lower tourism earnings
Egyptian balance of payments suffered from pressure, which affects the value of the local currency.

Opportunities

We must recognize that the already bad economic situation, however there are still international companies want to invest in Egypt, and this is not a rumor, but the reality
Macro level of the economy is in a state of the slowdown in growth since the revolution
 Led to an increase in the unemployment rate, along with the case of the high rate of inflation because of the high exchange rate of the dollar and increased production costs.
This situation is known «recession overheating», which affects the economy in a state of severe decline.
 The reason for this crisis is a case of political turmoil.
But this does not mean that there are no opportunities for investment
That the devaluation of the pound against the dollar opens great opportunities for investment in export industries.
The government budget deficit will force the state to resort to dramatically cooperation with the private sector.

Threats

1-the  problem is  we not have stable political system.
2-protest.
3-Egypt credit scoured.

Conclusion that even in the darkest crises there who can see the opportunities investment .
and Egypt is greater than to fall for mainly political reasons and regional.

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